Petro dominated the elections, followed by the rise of Fico Gutierrez

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His career began until 2022, the day Gustavo Petro lost in the second round of the 2018 Colombian presidential election. Of all the names running for the current campaign, Petro was the only one in which the government and opposition, liberal and radical, were confident. and accepted as undecided. Survey data indicate that the leader of the historic treaty has taken advantage of that early advantage to turn it into an apparent dominance: one in three Colombians say they vote for him on May 29 in the first round of decision-making. Will give Alternatives to the Orthodox Ivan Duke.

Fico Gutierrez, who has become the natural ideological replacement for the outgoing president, is in second place with 24%. Of course, his rise in recent weeks is the most remarkable of all the candidates, perhaps thanks to the fact that he has managed to unite many right-wingers in Colombia around him. For now, that’s enough to put him in the second round against Petro.

Center candidate Sergio Fajardo, who fell just a few votes short of a second round place in 2018 instead of Petro, is far behind. Tied with Rodolfo Hernandez, he barely gets 10% support. The former mayor of Bucaramanga ran a populist campaign, far from any traditional platform, and with a massive media effort that put him in a good position until a few weeks ago, when the rest of the candidates had not yet been defined. Now, after inter-partisan consultations with Petro, Gutierrez and Fajardo being crowned as leaders on March 13, Hernandez appears to have halted their development. In last place is the only female candidate who scores in the polls, Ingrid Betancourt, for whom voters do not recognize her sudden departure from the center coalition with an undetermined fate.

About two months before the election, this situation should be considered a starting point rather than a forecast. Of particular relevance is the percentage of indefinite votes that elections still collect, despite the fact that these are generally limited to the universe of potential voters. About a fifth of them remain in “don’t know, don’t respond”, “blank” or “zero”.

On paper, this margin of uncertainty would be enough for Gustavo Petro to win the presidency in the first round, a hypothesis that has circulated through political gossip in Bogotá, but still lacks empirical support. In fact, it seems quite difficult for any one candidate to accumulate all this wealth of uncertainty, even though Petro presents it with a more credible platform for victory and a greater media presence than ever before.

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In fact, if there is one candidate who has been absorbing new votes above others in recent weeks, it is not the one on the left, but Federico Gutierrez. If you compare its average before and after inter-party consultations, it is the one that has increased the most. Certainly, in the elections before 13 March, many more candidates were in the running: all those who competed against Petro, Fico and Fajardo in the respective left, right and center elections. The point is that it is Gutierrez who has managed to absorb more votes than he was orphaned after the decision of the various blocs.

The withdrawal of the candidacy of Oscar Iván Zuluaga (from the Democratic Center, the party of President Duque and, in particular, that of former President lvaro Uribe), the progressive media campaign that has facilitated Gutierrez’s increased recognition (only 33 earlier this year) % of Colombia had a formed opinion about the former mayor of Medellin), and anchoring FICO as a polarizing focus in the region of Petro are among the catalysts.

This is polarization around Petro (and any possibility of government from the left outside government Establishment), as well as its reflection around the Colombian authority is particularly expressed in Uribe’s portrait, which facilitates a double confrontation between him and Gutierrez. In this implicit clamp, Sergio Fajardo is left without a clear anchor. Your cover letter is limited to having an option to avoid this polarization. But, once the votes are coordinated around the poles, it is very difficult to reverse the trend, because the incentive for strategic voting that is limited to choosing sides (also to prevent the opponent from winning) is an inertia. Produces that feeds itself.

Finally, such a clear ideological divide helps the election work because it makes the candidacy clear to the voter. It should by no means be overlooked that the track record of elections in Colombia has been uneven. He also achieved very good results in the 2018 elections and in the 2019 Bogota mayoral elections, but worse in the 2016 referendum on the peace deal. This, added to the number of undecided voters, made their reaction to the waves of sudden protests that the country has seen in recent years, with the changing but still clearly negative evaluations of the incumbent president and his yet-to-be-defined candidates. The relationship, and the appearance of candidates being more difficult to classify as Rodolfo Hernandez himself, advises caution in reading these polls. As well as for campaigns that are prominent. The race has just started.

methodology and sources

The average number of elections includes the last published by each polling house registered with the National Electoral Council from March 14, 2022 to the date of publication of the article (the day after the inter-party consultation that defines the candidates) archive for the Presidency. is collected from the platform recipes-polls.comAnd unlike publication in various media.

Each survey has a slightly different weight in the average that depends on the numerical assessment done by Polling Light, which evaluates each polling station according to a series of technical, methodological and success parameters in the final result. To avoid skewing the average excessively, the specified weights differ by only 20%, so that the highest rated pollster’s poll receives 100% and the lowest rated receives 80% of the weight from the final average. When a pollster is registered with the CNE but is not rated by, the average gives it an intermediate point between the two extremes.

As is the case with the data used as food for averages from the above platforms, the code used for this analysis, as well as its aggregate results today, serve as the basis for the graphs produced. available to anyone this open store,

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