First weather forecast for Easter: Palm Sunday with high temperatures and rain for the next three days

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First weather forecast for Easter: Palm Sunday with high temperatures and rain for the next three days Listen to this article

There are five days left for Palm Sunday, the long-awaited start of the first Holy Week two years after it was canceled due to Covid, and just three for the first operation on the streets, already without schools in Madrid, Asturias and Friday. with. Castile and Leon. The state meteorological agency (Emet) will wait until the end of this week before offering its forecast, but other meteorologists are already offering the first draft of the weather forecast, which pulls into a Sunday without rain and high temperatures. After, instead, several days of rain

Such is the expert Francisco Martin, meteorologist magazine coordinator to hit space science, and the person in charge of the portal’s meteorology there is time, Mar Gomez, who outlines Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of widespread rain. Although from that moment the uncertainty increases and forecasting becomes risky, both experts look to anticyclonic weather, i.e. with stable and high temperatures, for the next days.

“Deterministic forecasts – which provide a single and clear forecast: they say whether it will rain tomorrow in Madrid and how many liters – and probabilistic forecasts – which provide a range of scenarios involving a degree of probability – indicate the same are direction for two days, they go hand in hand except for small differences, and a harsh forecast can already be given, at least until Wednesday, which is when they start to separate,” Martin referenced. does. “As always, uncertainty is high in spring, a highly variable season in which atmospheric patterns change with unusual speed, the more we move across the time horizon. But there are already forecasts with credible trends so that citizens can decide for the holy week”, explains the meteorologist. With these wicks “and warning the population that we are talking about the most likely scenario”, their predictions have a high probability of being fulfilled for this Friday, Saturday and Sunday (or a low degree of uncertainty, As experts prefer), moderate uncertainty on Monday and Tuesday and higher from Wednesday.

Today, two models agree that next Friday “an active cold front associated with a storm that will be located over the south of England is going to enter the north-west of the peninsula and affect Galicia, the northern third and above.” Pyrenees, where it will release abundant rain”. It will not cause a “very pronounced drop in temperature”, that is, not the kind of brutal collapse caused by the ingress of Arctic air masses that has returned Spain to winter since last Thursday. “It is an Atlantic type of cold mass, softer than the Arctic”, explains the meteorologist.

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At the same time, “an anticyclonic wedge will enter the southwest of the peninsula”, while the storm in the Gulf of Cádiz since Monday will move towards the central Mediterranean Sea. This practically translates to “stable weather, cloudy skies but no rain” in the rest of the country, especially in the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands and the southern peninsula.

On Saturday, “the progress of the front will continue from the northwest to the southeast, which will weaken.” The fundamental change will be visible later in the day, “when an active Atlantic hurricane reaches the west of the peninsula”. Although in theory it will not affect you completely, it will “create a change in time”. “Very marked southerly winds will cause a significant increase in temperatures across the country on Sunday, especially in the north,” say experts, who add that the storm “could generate another temporary ingress of Saharan dust, which would Will last for a day or two”, but not like a historic one for March.

“On Sunday it will become clear to the whole country practically until the last minute, when a front will enter through Galicia”, continues Martin, with “a procession of donkeys protected from the rain”. From there, “there will be an important fact: a drop of cold air — a trough — to the south of the storm, which will create weather conditions on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday,” warns the magazine’s producer. Ram Meteorological,

Thus, Monday and Tuesday will be en route to one or two “very active” fronts, which will cause “a very significant drop in temperature and widespread rainfall across the peninsula”. “The processions of those days are about to pass through the water”, laments Martin. On Wednesday, these rains will reach the Peninsular East and the Balearic Islands, which by then were “spared”, as “another storm will form in the Mediterranean”.

But at the end of Holy Wednesday “the Azores anticyclone will reach and begin to prevail in the peninsula, leading to stable weather with a gradual disappearance of rain from west to center.” “Most models predict that the second half of Holy Week will be dominated by stable and sunny anticyclonic weather over the peninsula and the Canary Islands.” The question is what will happen in the Balearic Islands: “We don’t know if the storm is going to be around the islands or if it’s going to move to the central Mediterranean.”

For his part, the doctor in physics and the head of meteorology for the portal there is time, Mar Gomez, also says that the tools available to him “allow some things to be pursued today, though always with caution”. His forecast coincides with Francisco Martin’s. “These days the thermometers are going to rise and on Friday it will begin with the entry of a front that will release rain in Asturias, Cantabria, the Basque Country, Castilla y León and northern Navarra. The weather will remain calm for the rest of the country”, predicted Gomez.

On Saturday, “in principle, today and if the landscape does not change”, rain will be concentrated mainly on two points: Girona and the westernmost part of the central system – north of Cáceres and the foothills of the Sierra de Guadarrama -. “It will be a calm day over the rest of the region,” says the meteorologist, who does not rule out “occasional rain in Badajoz and over the East Cantabrian Sea”. Palm Sunday “expects many high-altitude clouds, which block sunlight, but do not discharge water.” “It will be a calm day and if it rains, it will be due to a front in western Galicia and the arrival of parts of the Canary Islands, but it will not be intense.” Temperatures will remain “above normal for the time of year”. Gomez highlights the values ​​that will be achieved in Andalusia, with 28 degrees in Seville and 26/27 degrees in Cordoba. In Murcia they will reach 24° and in Madrid 20°.

For the start of next week, “the same front will enter the peninsula from the west and leave more or less widespread rain between Monday and Wednesday, especially in the west and center of the country,” the expert continues. “These days the temperature may drop a bit, but we will not talk about cold like we have had since last Thursday, and they will recover again from Wednesday,” he says. Since Wednesday, the meteorologist concluded, “Some are more difficult to see, but most models bet that the weather will remain stable, so that the middle of Holy Week will have cool weather with above-normal temperatures. This is the trend most likely.

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